IT Facts for September, 2003

Enrst & Young: Экспорт ПО в России

По прогнозам аналитиков компании Ernst & Young, объем экспорта России в области разработки программного обеспечения вырастет к 2005 году до $ 450 миллионов. Одновременно объем экспорта специальных выделенных центров разработок зарубежных компаний вырастет к этому времени более чем в 2 раза.

CRN: Companies dissatisfied with hardware vendors

The overall channel satisfaction rating for all 11 hardware vendors came in at 21.6% in August, down from 25.7% in July and 31% in June.

Nielsen: Kazaa users down 40%

Nielsen//Netratings charted a 40% decline over the summer in the number of people using Kazaa. But a lot of that drop may be due to “the summer doldrums, when people are away from their computers.” Many college students, sometimes cited as among the heaviest downloaders, would have been away from their high-speed Internet connections.

E-mail: People read only 65% of the newsletters

E-mail users regularly open and read e-mail from 10 to 20 companies or a maximum of 16 on average, according to a recent report. Respondents said they open and read about 65 percent of the permission e-mail they receive, but that when asked to re-evaluate the permission-based e-mail relationships they maintain, they would renew just 47 percent of those relationships.

SIA: Semiconductor growth almost best since 1990

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced Monday that sales of semiconductor chips reached $13.4 billion in August, up from $12.9 billion the previous month. This is the sixth consecutive monthly increase, the SIA said. Year-over-year revenue increased 12.5 percent from $11.9 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier.

“With the exception of the peak year of 2000, this is the strongest monthly increase in August since 1990,” SIA President George Scalise said in a statement. Sales in the Asia-Pacific region grew 6.4%, while the increase in Japan was just 1.6%. Europe posted an increase of 3.8% over July, and the Americas recorded a 2.5%increase. Sales of microprocessors were up 7.8% , and DRAM devices rose 11%.

Chips used in consumer devices such as DVD players and cameras rose by 5.3%, while flash memory chips were up 6.9% since July. The wireless sector posted a 4.7% growth. Last month, research firm Gartner observed that chip sales are showing definitive signs of a recovery. The firm was more bullish in its forecast, saying that the worldwide semiconductor market should reach $173 billion in 2003, compared with $156 billion last year, an 11% increase. The SIA has forecast a growth of 10.1% for 2003.

Gartner: Disposing of PCs too expensive

Released Monday by research company Gartner, the study says although the sale of obsolete hardware can fetch owners from 3% to 5% of the equipment’s original price, that doesn’t factor in the $85 to $136 it can cost to get rid of an old PC.

Michael Dell: Facts on Dell

The company can take a PC order and within 90 minutes have the necessary materials delivered by its suppliers. Dell sells between 120,000 and 140,000 PCs a day. (Michael Dell at Emerging Technologies Conference at MIT)

IDC on tablet PCs

In 2003, a total of 500,000 tablet PCs will be sold around the globe, which represents about 1 percent of the total portable PC market. But, by 2007, IDC forecasts that the tablet PC could account for well over 20% of the portable market. Microsoft has more than a 90% share of the market for PC operating systems.

Digit Wireless forecast on mobile handset sales

Wireless handset sales are expected to reach 426 million units in 2003 and are expected to
reach 770 million by 2006. Over one billion SMS text messages were sent daily on GSM phones
by the end of 2002, resulting in over $10 billion in incremental European carrier revenue.
Data revenues are projected to be $60 billion and to exceed voice revenues on 3G networks by
2006.

How employers rank certifications in terms of ROI

CRN Magazine has this lengthy annual research on the value of certifications in the small and large businesses. Here’s a snapshot of the most valuable certifications in terms of Return On Investment.

Small businesses:
Check Point CCSA
Microsoft MCSA
Cisco CCNA
Citrix OCA
Novell CNE

Large businesses:
Microsoft MCSD
Microsoft MCDBA
Check Point CCSA
Check Point CCSE
RedHat RHCE

Disruptive: 25M Hybrid Devices by 2006

A new report from research firm Disruptive Analysis predicts the convergence of wireless technologies, and in particular examines the emergence of cellular / WLAN hybrid products and services. By the end of 2006, the analyst firm foresees there could be as many as 25m ?multimode? wireless devices worldwide, mostly laptops, PDAs and mobile phones.

IDC: Spending on security to grow fast

IDC expects spending on security and business continuity worldwide to grow twice as fast as IT spending over the next several years, surpassing $116 billion by 2007.

Forrester: Broadband data for the US

Dial-up users spent $324 online on average in the past three months. Broadband users spent $552 in that period. The dial-up user’s average annual income is $53,200, while the broadband consumer’s is $70,500. The average age of the dial-up user is 47 to broadband’s 43. And only 34 percent of dial-up users have a college degree, while 55% of broadband users are similarly qualified. The same research indicated that 39 percent of dial-up users have children younger than 18 in the household versus 41 percent for broadband.

Forrester: Internet usage in the US

In 2000, Forrester counted 43.8 million households that are online. The next year this rose to 58.8 million, and in 2002 the number reached 63.6 million. This year, 67.5 million households will have gone online. Yet while the number of households online has risen steadily, the percentage that buy online is relatively unchanged. Half of those households online in 2000 shopped in that medium. It dropped to 49% in 2001, before rising marginally to 51% in 2002 and this year. Forrester found the number of product categories purchased online has risen from 4.4 in 2000 and 6.6 in 2001 to 7.5 in 2002 and 8.1 this year.

Forrester: E-Commerce forecast for the US

Forrester is confident that U.S. online retail sales this year will close at $95.7 billion, climbing to $229.9 billion in 2008. Next year’s sales are projected at $122.6 billion, with $149.2 billion, $176.8 billion and $204.3 billion forecast for 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. “Right now, e-commerce represents 3 percent of total retail sales,” Forrester consumer markets research director Kate Delhagen told e-commerce attendees at the show in New York. “By 2008, it’ll be 8%.”

Forrester: Web retailers turn to profit

Shop.org and Forrester Research reported that 70% of retailers reported positive operating margins in 2002, compared with 56% in 2001. Collectively, retailers broke even in sales in 2002, up from a loss of 6% in 2001. Such growth, particularly in a recovering economy, signals that next year may be the first in which online retailers are profitable overall.

DoC: PC shipments decline

New orders for computers and related products fell 2.3% during the same period. August shipments totaled $7.67 billion, and new orders were valued at $7.96 billion. Computers and related products-a category that includes computer storage devices and peripheral gear such as printers-suffered a worse downturn than the overall manufacturing sector. In general, new orders for manufactured durable goods fell 0.9% in August, to $173.3 billion, while shipments fell 2.9% to $176.3 billion, the Commerce Department said.

Retail Forward: Online Xmas shopping up to $17B

Retail Forward reported this week that it projects retail sales will rise during the 2003 holiday season by 4% from the previous year’s season. Specifically in the online retail sector, Retail Forward projects a rise of 27% in the 2003 holiday season over that of 2002, with sales totaling $17.5 billion in Q4. For an idea of whether or not Retail Forward?s projection for Q4 is on track, the US Department of Commerce (DoC) reports that online retail sales in the US totaled $11.92 billion in the first quarter of this year and $12.48 billion in the second quarter.