China will have 5.5 mln 3G subscribers within the first 12 months that these services are available, according to Norson Information Technology. That number will rise to 21.9 mln by the end of the second year and hitting 84.2 mln by the end of the third year.

The GSM Association said 79 of a total 105 WCDMA networks in 43 countries have been or will be upgraded to HSDPA, an increase of 60% in 5 months. Around 1.79 bln mobile phone users around the world are on a GSM network, or 78.4% of all mobile users. The total number of subscribers on all 3G networks totaled 55 mln by March 2006.

In the UK, one of the most competitive mobile markets in Europe, Forrester expects that 68% of all mobile subscribers will use 3G, and more than 50% will regularly use mobile Internet services by 2010.

By 2008, just 3% of European mobile users will still use a GSM-only phone, and this will shrink to a negligible 1% by the end of 2010, Forrester Research says.

In 2006, the number of 3G users in China could potentially reach 22.67 mln, Research and Markets reports. By 2008, this number is expected to reach 106.08 mln due to the completion of 3G network’s expansion for national coverage. Young people between 20 and 28 accounts for 55.5% of the total potential users. Users with college qualifications and below account for 78.4% and university graduates 21.6%. The average academic qualification is far higher than the nationwide average.

Nokia sees 3G phone sales doubling in 2006, compared to 2005.

Wireless handset component makers are scrambling to support some challenging market trends including the proliferation of 3G services, reports In-Stat. By mid-2005, the number of 3G subscribers (CDMA2000 1X EV-DO & WCDMA) exceeded 50 mln. The rollout of 3G services has created pressure for carriers to earn cellular data revenue, and has spawned a multitude of cellular devices of every shape and size, and with almost every feature possible.

According to Post & Telestyrelsen (PTS), 85% of Swedes are covered by 3G services, giving the country the best coverage in Europe ahead of the UK (approximately 75%) and Italy (60%), TeleGeography reports.

According to IDC, the Western European mobile phone market (consisting of traditional mobile phones and converged devices) maintained healthy double digit growth in Q3 2005 as shipments increased by 16% YTY and 5% QTQ to reach 39.5 mln units compared to 34 mln in Q3 2004. In Q3 2005, WCDMA handsets represented 12% of the total market compared to 7% in Q3 2004, in line with IDC’s forecast of WCDMA handset shipments in 2005 representing 13% of the total market.

According to Global Mobile Suppliers Association, in Q3 2005 100 mln new GSM customers signed up for service, taking the global total to 1.56 bln. GSM subscribers now account for 77.2% of all wireless users and made up over 90.8% of Q3 2005 additions. In North America GSM outsold all other technologies, gaining over 80% of net additions to take its market share to 34.5% (up from 28.7% at the end of 2004). The number of W-CDMA subscribers totalled 34.8 mln at the end of Q3 2005, an increase of 106% YTY.

Overall shipments of mobile phones in Sweden fell 5% in Q3 2005, according to IT Research. Total shipments amounted to 912,000 mobile phones, of which 212,000 were 3G phones. Shipments of 3G phones rose 52% YTY and represented 23% of all mobile phone sales in Q3 2005.

Northern Sky Research expects 1.2 bln 3G users by 2010. The researcher also predicted 500,000 users will have signed up for fixed officially-standardized WiMAX service by the end of 2006.

The number of mobile subscribers worldwide was expected to rise 20% to 1.91 bln at the end of 2005 and cross the 2-bln-mark in 2006, driven by China and India, where mobile phones are only now reaching vast swathes of their 1 bln+ population. By 2010, Informa says, the Asia-Pacific region would contribute almost half of the mobile subscribers globally as subscribers rise to 1.3 bln from 843 mln 2005. Informa forecast 2.7 bln mobile subscribers worldwide by 2010. 46.5% of these subscribers will continue to be on 2G networks, followed by 29.6% on 2.5G networks and 23.8% on 3G networks.

TechDirt points to a survey by Valista, where 25% of all mobile phone owners did not download content in the last month despite almost 50% owning 3G handsets, while 14% said they have never downloaded content.

The average price of a 3G phone will rise over the next few months from $212 to $215, Qualcomm says.

9% of Italian mobile customers are using 3G lines, ABI Research says.

Mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) activity in Western Europe will significantly increase over the next few years, according to IDC. IDC believes that the MVNO subscriber base in Western Europe will grow from more than 13 mln in 2005, to more than 47 mln in 2009.

IDC anticipates that by 2009, over 30 million US wireless subscribers will be consuming commercial video/TV content and services over their wireless devices. The market value will top $3 bln by 2009. Until mid-2006, mobile video and TV content is likely to be delivered solely over existing 2.5G and 3G carrier unicast cellular networks. However, broadcast/multicast networks from Crown Castle Mobile Media and MediaFLO USA should emerge in the latter half of next year, which will change the competitive dynamics in the marketplace. While wireless video/TV over cellular-enabled devices is showing promise with early signs of growth, IDC finds that network services must be designed to better streamline the activation and on-going use of video/TV content and live TV. A hybrid delivery model that supports live TV and video content as well as on-demand clips is likely to be the most effective long term approach.

3G service launches and the subsequent increase in 3G handset development saw explosive year-on-year growth of almost 850% in Q4 2004, driving the proportion of WCDMA handsets to 6% in 2004 compared to 1% in 2003. IDC forecasts WCDMA handsets to increase to around 13% of total mobile phone shipments in 2005, particularly in light of service launches from T-Mobile and O2 in Q1 2005 and new 3G handsets such as Nokia 6680 and Sony Ericsson K600i.

Wireless broadband technologies such as WiMAX and FLASH-OFDM will replace 3G cellular data networks, according to a report by Datacomm Research and Rysavy Research.

IDC forecasts smartphone growth approaching 70% in 2005 in Western European market, increasing smartphones’ total proportion of the market beyond 6%. 3G service launches by Vodafone and Orange and the subsequent increase in 3G handset development saw explosive YTY growth of almost 850% in Q4 2004, driving the proportion of WCDMA handsets to 6% in 2004 compared to 1% in 2003. IDC forecasts WCDMA handsets to increase to around 13% of total mobile phone shipments in 2005, particularly in light of service launches from T-Mobile and O2 in Q1 2005 and new 3G handsets such as the 6680 from Nokia and Sony Ericsson K600i. However, GPRS is forecast to remain the dominant standard for the total mobile phone market, in contrast to GSM, which is expected to continue its decline in competition with a growing selection of low-cost GPRS-based, and increasingly EDGE-based, handsets.

The subscriber numbers for UMTS (3G) technology are growing in leaps and bounds worldwide. With growth rates of more than 1,200% year-to-year at the end of 2003 and around 500% year-to-year in 2004 some telecoms associations are already waxing ecstatic about 3G’s “rapid breakthrough” and sweeping success. Their announcements are reminiscent of the headlines back in the days of the dotcom bubble. At the time, modern information and communication technologies, especially mobile telephony, were being hailed as stimuli for the entire economy. But not long after the hype died down at the turn of the millennium, the mood changed radically. Because high expectations had been dashed, innovations of every type were then eyed with great reservations. This lack of differentiation was a handicap that still afflicts the widely discussed 3G technology in some countries today.

It seems like a good idea to scrutinise the positive notes on 3G now coming from the telecommunications industry on the basis of the statistics. It should be generally borne in mind that optimistic reports on the growth of subscriber numbers do not necessarily go hand in hand with the commercial success of a technology. Despite an increase in the penetration rate the average revenue per user can easily decline so much that earnings will fall. This phenomenon was observed when the second generation of mobile telephony was launched in the market.

Disregarding the commercial aspect, though, the statistics undisputedly show that 3G is gaining market share from 2G. However, the impressive growth rates cited above are based on the absolute number of subscribers, which - as is common when new products are launched - is initially low. This statistical effect sometimes leads people to misinterpet the importance of the market. Currently, 16 mln people use 3G-enabled phones worldwide - a mere 1% of all mobile subscribers.

Turning away from the global view, the 3G situation in Germany is very sobering to date. The acceptance of the innovative broadband mobile technology differs considerably from country to country. 3G is particularly popular in Japan, Italy and the UK thanks to the clear strategies pursued by the telecoms companies and content providers there. Fifty percent of all 3G subscribers live in Japan, nearly one in five lives in Italy, and almost one in six in the UK, but only one in 80 lives in Germany. However, even in the countries leading globally, 3G subscribers remain a small proportion of the total number of mobile users. The reading for Japan is not quite 9%, for Italy just over 5% and for the UK just under 5%; Germany trails far behind also in this ranking with a share of 0.5%.

The current statistics on 3G mobile telephony document that UMTS technology - already declared dead by some - is gaining ground around the globe. As is so often the case, the innovations have needed more time to take root than the market players originally forecast. From a global standpoint, the numbers give reason for hope; from a German standpoint, they are more a reason for worry. Germany risks failing to connect also in the area of innovative mobile telephony. Here especially, the telecommunications companies and content providers have an urgent economic task on their hands: they have to generate customer enthusiasm for a switch to 3G by offering value-added services. Germany cannot afford not to enter the broadband mobile data telephony age.

Nokia forecasts that more than 70 mln people will own a 3G mobile phone by the end of 2005. It also forecasts that the number of mobile users in the world will pass 2 bln by the end of 2005 as usage mushrooms across Africa and other developing economies.

Demand for 3G mobile phone services in Asia outside of Japan will grow by half this year to more than 17 mln users, driven by the established South Korean market, according to IDC. The wider availability of 3G phones that allow high-speed Internet access and video-conferencing will support the increase in subscribers as operators launch new services and discounts. IDC estimates Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) mobile revenues will rise by an average 16% in 2005 to $81.2 bln, driven by India, South Korea and the Philippines. Mobile revenues are expected to rise 64% in India, 27% in South Korea and 25% in the Philippines.

Over the past two and half years, the 2.5/3G mobile data services market in the US has grown from nothing to a market worth an estimated $1.5 bln by the end of 2006, according to Forrester Research.